Let’s update and translate all the delegate numbers here. These are the delegate totals as of Today (3.24), keep in mind 1144 are needed to win.
Mitt Romney: 563 (56%)
Rick Santorum: 263 (26%)
Newt Gingrich: 135 (13%)
Ron Paul: 50 (5%)
With Romney almost halfway to 1144 the question becomes how soon can he mathematically clinch the nomination. Over the next five weeks the voting schedule slows down greatly, leading up to April 24, when 209 delegates across five Northeastern states will be up for grabs. May 22 is the earliest Romney can officially clinch the nomination, but that scenario would require Romney to win at least 95% of the delegates in the 15 states and District of Columbia leading up to that date. That also assumes that Romney would win all of the Republican Party’s 77 ‘undecided superdelegates’ by then.
Being that not all of those states are locks for Romney to win, a more realistic date for Romney to be the victor is June 5, when New Jersey (yes, our vote may actually count!) and California vote. Gallup polls show that Romney maintains only a slight advantage over Santorum, 34% to 40% respectively, meaning this election could drag on for a while.
Note: The Gallup polls also indicate Gingrich (13%) and Paul (10%) should just give up.
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