Updating the GOP Race

Let’s update and translate all the delegate numbers here. These are the delegate totals as of Today (3.24), keep in mind 1144 are needed to win.

Mitt Romney: 563 (56%)

Rick Santorum: 263 (26%)

Newt Gingrich: 135 (13%)

Ron Paul: 50 (5%)

With Romney almost halfway to 1144 the question becomes how soon can he mathematically clinch the nomination. Over the next five weeks the voting schedule slows down greatly, leading up to April 24, when 209 delegates across five Northeastern states will be up for grabs. May 22 is the earliest Romney can officially clinch the nomination, but that scenario would require Romney to win at least 95% of the delegates in the 15 states and District of Columbia leading up to that date. That also assumes that Romney would win all of the Republican Party’s 77 ‘undecided superdelegates’ by then.

Being that not all of those states are locks for Romney to win, a more realistic date for Romney to be the victor is June 5, when New Jersey (yes, our vote may actually count!) and California vote. Gallup polls show that Romney maintains only a slight advantage over Santorum, 34% to 40% respectively, meaning this election could drag on for a while.

Note: The Gallup polls also indicate Gingrich (13%) and Paul (10%) should just give up.

What Does Jeb Bush’s Endorsement Mean For Romney?

After deciding not to make any endorsements during the Florida primary almost two months ago, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush decided to back Mitt Romney after his victory in the Illinois primary on Tuesday. Bush declined any endorsements a couple months ago due to any one candidate becoming the clear favorite, but not that Romney has 56% of the delegates, Bush believes Romney will be the Republican nominee.

Bush’s statement was, “Primary elections have been held in 34 states, and now is the time for Republicans to unite behind Governor Romney and take our message of fiscal conservatism and job creation to all voters this fall. I am endorsing Mitt Romney for our party’s nomination. We face huge challenges, and we need a leader who understands the economy, recognizes more government regulation is not the answer, believes in entrepreneurial capitalism and works to ensure that all Americans have the opportunity to succeed."

So does having the backing of Jeb Bush, and the other Bush’s for that matter, make Romney any stronger of a candidate?

First off, I believe that at this point Romney will win the GOP nomination with relative ease, regardless of how long the other candidates take to officially bow out of the competition. Bush’s endorsement may make a difference in Florida, a swing state, come November when Romney is pinned against Obama. That being said, Bush would have endorsed whomever the GOP nominee was. There was no chance of Bush endorsing Obama. So, some Florida voters may hang there hat on the endorsement of their former Governor, but it I’m not sure it aids Romney any more than it would have aided Santorum, Gingrich or Paul.

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The 2012 Issues

Gas prices are nearing $6.00. The country has a military presence in almost every continent. The economy is still recovering slowly from 2008. Unemployment continues to hover around an all-time high. People run/jump/burrow/younameit through the Mexican/American border. These are the issues our country faces, and with the November Presidential election looming, this post will dive into what the people of the US of A believe are the most critical issues.

In an effort to take a stab at the burning issues in the upcoming election, Fox News (among many other places, I’m sure) has a poll on their website where people can select the issues they deem important. The options are (listed in alphabetical order) education, energy, environment, federal spending, foreign relations, global economy, government regulation, gun rights, health care, illegal immigration, jobs & economy, national security, social issues, and social security & medicare.

The top six most voted on are federal spending (1825 votes), jobs & economy (1577), government regulation (1300), national security (1109), illegal immigration (975) and energy (971), respectively.

Fox News is also tracking the issues mentioned on Twitter in the last 24 hours. The results from Twitter strongly favor the economy (119k mentions). Energy and education are tied for second with 22k mentions each. The rest of the list is as follows: federal spending (6k); environment (5k); and health care (4.1k).

The Un-Aligned GOP

Are Republican shooting themselves in the foot by letting their primary’s drag on without a nominee set to take on Barack Obama? With their threats to take their campaigns all the way to the Republican Convention in Tampa, are Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich doing their party a disservice by not bowing out of the campaign and handing their delegates over to Mitt Romney or Rick Santorum?

According to a poll by the Pew Research Center, President Obama would defeat either Romney or Santorum in November. (see below)

But I do not believe the effect of having three or four candidates battling all the way to the convention will be negative. Four years ago, Obama’s and Hillary Clinton’s campaign’s for the Democratic nominee lasted almost until the convention, and there were no adverse effects on Obama’s campaign against McCain.

Romney supports believe that he will ultimately be the GOP nominee, and that the states he is losing in the primaries will support him against Obama. I agree with the premonition that no matter who the GOP candidate is, they will defeat Obama in deep south states such as Alabama and Mississippi.

Santorum’s self proclaimed ‘Grassroots Campaign’ has been gaining steam, but does he really have a chance against Romney without Gingrich’s and Paul’s delegates? Both Romney and Santorum have been talking about ‘delegate math’ but the numbers favor Romney, and despite his victories in Alabama and Mississippi, Santorum really has a long way to go to win the GOP nominee.

Money Matters

Ever wonder how much cash it takes to fund a campaign? Ever wonder if the amount of money raised by a candidate correlates into winning? This post will break down this finances of the various campaign’s for the 2012 Presidential election, and give a comparison to some others throughout recent history.

Incumbent Barack Obama has raised the most money of any candidate on either side, raising over $151 million as of January 31. This compares favorable to the $103.8 million he had raised at this time four years ago, however this number is inflated because as the incumbent, he runs uncontested, allowing him to field donations from all Democrats.

Leading the Republican field in campaign finances (and delegates) is Mitt Romney. Romney’s $63.7 million raised is more than double than the next candidate in the field, but is not as much as the $90.1 million he raised at this point in his unsuccessful campaign for the Republican nomination four years ago.

The rest of the Republican field is an interesting in the sense that there is no direct correlation between money raised and delegates won. Also, there are candidates who have since withdrawn from the campaign that have raised more than candidates still actively seeking the nomination. The funding of the remaining Republicans is as follows (caps denotes candidate still seeking nomination): RON PAUL ($31.1 million raised); Rick Perry ($20.5); NEWT GINGRICH ($18.3); Herman Cain ($16.9); Michele Bachmann ($9.3); RICK SANTORUM ($6.7); Jon Huntsman ($6.4); and Tim Pawlenty ($5.9).

The most interesting takeaway from here is that Santorum, who has the second most delegates, is seventh overall in funding, still trailing three candidates that have withdrawn. Another interesting takeaway is that Perry, who raised more money than everyone not named Romney or Paul, is not longer seeking the nomination.

So the question remains, can you buy a campaign?

All numbers used from here. An interesting breakdown of how funds are obtained.

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Decoding Super Tuesday

Yesterday (March 6) was Super Tuesday; the day 416 delegates across ten states are decided in the Republican primary elections, the largest number of states on any one day in the primary season. The ten states that voted on Super Tuesday were Alaska (24 delegates), Georgia (76), Idaho (32), Massachusetts (38), North Dakota (25), Ohio (63), Oklahoma (40), Tennessee (55), Vermont (17), and Virginia (46). The results of Super Tuesday go along way in deciding the nomination of the parties. A good showing can be enough to propel a candidate to victory, and a poor showing can spell the end of a candidate’s campaign.

My goal here is to interpret the results of yesterday’s elections into layman’s terms.

Overall, Mitt Romney won six states and, Rick Santorum won three, Newt Gingrich won one, and Ron Paul did not win any states. The overall delegate count is now Romney with 415, Santorum with 176, Gingrich with 105, and Paul with 47. John Huntsman has two delegates, but has withdrawn his bid for the Republican nomination. A comprehensive, up-to-date chart of the primary race can be found here.

So after all these numbers are digested, what is really going on here?

According to the Associated Press (AP), conclusions can be drawn that Republican’s are not in love with any one candidate. They AP also notes that Gingrich is very much alive in the race, rich people favor Romney, southerners do not like Romney, Ohio is going to be hotly contested, and Paul is no longer a viable candidate.

Some even believe that President Barack Obama was the big winner of Super Tuesday.

A lot can be made of the results from Super Tuesday, but the reality is that there are still 1541 delegates up for grab and no candidate is that close to the 1144 delegates needed to win the nomination.

GOP Who's Who: Newt Gingrich

Last, and certainly not least (or lightest), Newt Gingrich.

Gingrich has been out of political office since his resignation in 1999 as 58th Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives. Since then, he has remained a relevant figure in Republican politics as a consultant, speaker, author and policy position strategist. He also has founded and chaired several policy ‘think tanks,‘ including “American Solutions for Winning the Future and the “Center for Health Transformation.”

Gingrich was the Speaker of the House under Bill Clinton, a Democrat, and has disagreements with the President over the budget, leading to the government shutdown in 1995. He was also an intricate part of Clinton’s impeachment for lying about his sexual encounters, but created a sense of hypocrisy when he became open about his extramarital affair with Callista Bisek. Bisek at the time was a staff member of the House and is now Gingrich’s third wife.

The New York Times believes that Gingrich, one of the Republican party’s most polarizing figures, faces a challenge in overcoming his personal issues including two divorces and a lack of a well-established association with religious conservatives.

I believe that Gingrich, considered the favorite of the Team Party movement, is losing momentum in the race for the GOP nomination. He is certainly going to have trouble overcoming his personal issues and I also believe that the radical nature of the Tea Party is losing steam nationwide.

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